Side event at the XII Global Baku Forum | March 16, 2025
The Global Baku Forum
NGIC annually holds Global Baku Forum, which has already become the premier event in Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East, providing an opportunity for distinguished leaders and thinkers to discuss the ways and means to overcome some of the world’s most pressing challenges ranging from “Building Trust for a Wider Europe”, to “a New World Order” to designing more effective programs for “Shared Societies”, “Towards a Multipolar World”, “Addressing/Challenging Radicalization and Extremism with Interfaith Dialogue for Peace, “Bridging Gaps to Create Inclusive Societies”, Peace and Security in the Middle East”, to “Geopolitics in the Age of Sustainable Development”.
The XII Global Baku Forum, organized by the Nizami Ganjavi International Center, took place on March 13-15, 2025, under the theme “Rethinking World Order: Turning Challenges into Opportunities.”
Side Event: Sources of Global Turbulence and Remedies for the Global Challenges Confronting Humanity, 16 March 2025
Convenor: World Academy of Art and Science
- Host: Garry Jacobs, President, WAAS
- The Emerging World Order – Ketan Patel, Chair, Force for Good
- Root Causes and Drivers of Why we are Here – Garry Jacobs, President, WAAS
- Solutions, Initiatives and Strategies that Could Comprise Campaign to Taking the World Forward? – Group
Root Causes of the Global Turbulence and Reflection on the Global Social Process
This paper provides a summary of a one-day conference conducted by the World Academy of Art & Science and hosted by Nizami Ganjavi International Centre (NGIC) in Baku during the XII Global Baku Forum on March 16, 2025. The meeting explored significant events related to the rising levels of global turbulence, highlighting underlying factors, examining possible explanations, and raising challenging questions regarding the events and root causes behind the destabilizing threats presently confronting humanity. It is an introductory step in an on-going process to enhance understanding of our human dilemma, identify possible solutions, formulate practical strategies, and explore the potential role that WAAS and partner organizations can play in addressing the challenges which confront us.
I. Turbulent Times
We live in turbulent times characterized by rising levels of uncertainty, doubt, distrust, and insecurity. Rising insecurity is fueling a polarization of societies, social unrest, extremism, violence, war and geopolitical instability. Knowledge of these characteristics is symptomatic of deeper underlying causes. The world is in the midst of a multidimensional global crisis encompassing political, economic, technological, social, cultural and environmental components. Some refer to it as a Polycrisis, some others as a Perfect Storm. Regardless of the name, its origins can be traced to events following the end of the Cold War that have led to the rapid globalization of society, accelerated pace of social change, rising levels of inequality and financial instability, competitive economic nationalism, and a scramble for global leadership to fill the vacuum.
Recently the process has been further fueled by the COVID-19 Pandemic, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the renewal of the arms race, a retreat to the Cold War mentality of competitive security, the acceleration of global warming, the threats posed by recent advances in generative AI (GenAI), the anticipation of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future, and other real and potential existential risks.
The polycrisis is characterized by a weakening of democratic institutions, the rise of extreme nationalism and authoritarianism, the declining effectiveness of multilateral institutions, and loss of confidence in the media, business, technology, science and other institutions. The sense of shared vision and universal values that provided a platform for international collaboration and global leadership a decade ago are being challenged by a retreat to self-interest and self-preservation that is fracturing domestic priorities and international relationships and spurring a desperate race for new alliances.
The turbulence is expanding simultaneously in many unpredictable directions like a rapidly moving tropical storm of global proportions multiplying in area, speed and intensity. The storm is leaderless and seems to defy both the efforts of leaders and the collective will of humanity to control, master or direct it. Instead, each initiative to harness its power is fueling unintended and unanticipated consequences.
II. The Global Context and Enabling Conditions
An understanding of the surface symptoms and consequences of the turbulence is not sufficient for mastering it. We also require knowledge of the root causes that spur and energize it, the social process that determines and drives its direction, and practical strategies that can alter its speed, direction, velocity and consequences and transform it into a conscious social evolutionary movement.
The causes of the turbulence are multidimensional, complex and interdependent. But they are all linked to extraordinary movements characteristic of the current period of global social evolution. The process of social evolution from isolated local communities to a single, interconnected global community has been taking place for millennia, but the speed, magnitude and complexity of growth, development and evolution exceed that of any period in history. Population growth, modernization, urbanization, economic development, the evolution of international relations and globalization continue to accelerate. The rate of technological innovations and dissemination that has brought us computers, renewable energies, cloud computing, algorithmic trading, AI and robotics continues to accelerate. As a result, the speed and quantity of communications have multiplied exponentially since the advent of the internet, smartphones, social media, and the viral instant sharing culture. Accelerating growth, technological innovation, communications and migration have brought along with them increases in inter-cultural contacts, influences and impacts between people around the world. The increase in contacts brought with them increasing exposure to the full spectrum of global cultural values and rapid changes in social aspiration, expectations, styles and standards of living. And at the same time, all these movements have contributed to rapidly rising levels of pressure generating environmental instability and taxing planetary limits.
Never before has humanity been subject to change of this speed, magnitude and intensity. Historically evolution has been a very slow, gradual process spanning countless centuries. It took Homo sapiens almost 200 millennia to reach a population of 10 million, another 10 millennia to reach 100 million, 18 centuries to raise it to one billion and only two centuries to raise that to eight billion. During the last 200 years, global economic growth has multiplied 100-fold. Humanity has evolved from a predominantly rural agrarian society to an urban cosmopolitan interconnected society interacting instantaneously via the internet, mobile phones, and social media.
Each stage in social evolution opens up unprecedented opportunities but also generates new pressures and stresses on established traditional and conventional customs, beliefs, values, attitudes, social institutions and lifestyles. And these things change much more slowly than the changes in technology, transport, communications and the pressures of population and migration. Increasing speed brings with it increasing uncertainty insecurity, anxiety, stress, polarization of society and social turbulence. While some look forward with anticipation to a better future, many others feel that the speed and magnitude of change threaten and undermine their achievements, power and position. Turbulence is a natural and inevitable consequence of rapid change. When the turbulence exceeds the capacity of society to adapt, it disrupts the social fabric and gives rise to discontent, the polarization of societies, conflict and violence.
The pace of change since the end of the Cold War led to unprecedented achievements: peace, demilitarization, the founding of the European Union and WTO, the birth of the Internet, the globalization of communications, economy and finance, and countless other wonders. But it also brought with it the frictions and pressures of close contact between traditional and modernized societies and cultures, increasing competition for scarce resources, international competition that shifted from military to economic dominance, financial instability, rising levels of unemployment and economic inequality. And increasing levels of environmental stress on the global habitat awakened the necessity for a rapid shift in energy from fossil fuels to renewable forms.
III. Struggle for Solutions
In 2013 the World Academy of Art & Science launched a project in collaboration with the United Nations Office at Geneva to inquire into the emerging nexus of global challenges: political, economic, social, cultural and ecological. The study confirmed that all these challenges share certain common attributes. They are all global in reach, impact, complexity, and interdependent with one another. None can be successfully addressed by the unilateral initiatives of nation states, by unidimensional policy measures, or by specialized institutions at the national and international level. None can be effectively understood and explained by uni-disciplinary perspectives, prevailing theoretical frameworks, and predominant ways of thinking. Our research concluded that fundamental changes would be required at all these levels to address these challenges effectively. It called for the development of integrated modes of thinking, a transdisciplinary approach to education, and a new paradigm for global development.
Two years later, in 2015, 193 UN member nations took the unanimous decision to adopt a comprehensive approach to addressing this complex nexus of interrelated global challenges by adopting Agenda 2030, a program to achieve 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets within 15 years. After an impressive beginning, Agenda 2030 has met with increasing resistance and obstacles to realization.
A decade after its inception, it is evident that the unprecedented levels of international cooperation, coordination and momentum required to address the existential threats to human security and sustainable development have not been achieved. The global community seems to have lost both its confidence and its commitment to its shared vision and values. It still lacks the integrated theoretical framework, institutional capabilities, essential policy measures, program initiatives, financial support, leadership expertise and public endorsement required to respond effectively to the challenges we face. By 2024, only 17% of the SDG targets were on track, with nearly half showing only minimal or moderate progress, and over one-third stalled or regressing. 1
IV. Root Causes of the Turbulence
The enabling environment of rapid and accelerating change creates a fertile field for instability. But the immediate source of the symptoms described above can be traced to more specific causes that have taken root in the unstable global social environment. Discussions in Baku identified a variety of these root causes. Resistance to Multilateralism: Failure to maintain funding, legitimacy, trust, and authority of global institutions due to the resistance of nation states to global rule of law, implementation of Agenda 2030, and commitment to addressing the threats of global warming.
Media: Failure to identify and protect the public or arm citizens for self-protection, against misinformation resulting from corporate control of the media.
Political: Fragile national governance structures unable to withstand technological, geopolitical, and social disruptions. These include the inability of democratic systems to evolve in response to rapid technological and communication changes. Weakening of national sovereignty over the plutocratic power of money and corporations, financial markets, taxation, and state control. Weak governance and oversight of money and market economics, leading to systemic imbalances.
Economic: Failure of socio-economic policies to deliver prosperity and meaningful inclusion to working classes due to neo-liberal policies supporting market fundamentalism, financial deregulation, financialization of economy, dominant power of corporations and decline of unions. Failure to address the rising problem of unemployment and job security related to globalization and technological innovation.
Technological: Neglect in addressing the disruptive social and economic impacts of technologies such as automation, AI, robotics, and broader technological acceleration. Inadequate regulation and safeguards to prevent the weaponization of technology (AI, social media, espionage, and election manipulation). Inadequate strength of global governance to ensure equitable benefits of technological advancements.
Environmental: Lack of integration of environmental sustainability into economic and political decision-making, rejection of scientific evidence as the basis for science diplomacy and policy-making, and shortage of funding, scientific expertise and technical skills to address ecological challenges.
V. Consequences and Outcomes
The enabling environment and root causes are responsible for the consequences and outcomes we witness today:
Increased environmental threats to human security, including the growing impact of climate as the single greatest threat to human health.
- Decline in quality of national and international leadership due to complexity and deviation from conventional theories of diplomacy and governance.
- Declining authority of national governments over tax payers, corporates, MNCs.
- Decline in democratic principles and human rights and a shift of democracies toward autocracy, plutocracy and oligarchy.
- Retreat to competitive nationalism and competitive security paradigm of the Cold War period, weakening of post WWII alliances & forging of new ones, revival of the arms race and reassertion of the nuclear threat.
- Growing autonomy of international financial markets and cryptocurrencies from national and global regulation.
- Historically high levels of economic inequality due to neoliberal economic policies favoring the wealthy and high-income earners combined with rising job insecurity due to foreign trade, AI & robotics, immigration and rising unemployment.
- Unbridled migration due to war, environmental degradation, cultural conflicts and declining economic opportunity and rising job insecurity. Increased migration driven by a combination of local and regional conflicts, economic opportunities, and environmental changes has accentuated pressures and tensions in the 21st century. The global refugee population increased dramatically, from 14 million in 2000 to 27 million in 2020 2.
- Declining trust, influence, effectiveness and power of multilateral institutions, global rule of law, national governments, business, the media and science.
- Fake news aggravated by social media and AI-based algorithms.
- Increased environmental threats to human security, including the growing impact of climate as the single greatest threat to human health.
VI. Key Initiatives to Address Global Turbulence
Humanity has come to the end of an era that can be effectively governed according to the ideas and institutions of the previous century. The problems confronting us today reveal the need for a radical shift to a new paradigm for global peace and development that transcends the values and theories of competitive nationalism, global competition, neoliberal economic policies, financialization, plutocracy and autocracy that have dominated international affairs through the 19th and 20th centuries.
The range and magnitude of the solutions must necessarily be commensurate with the range and depth of the root causes that need to be addressed. The Baku discussions identified some of the most seminal issues that need to be addressed, highlighting the need for a radical shift in approach required to guide a conscious transformation of the human community into a new era of peace and prosperity. The list below touches on a few of the issues and possible solutions identified and their implications for the future programming of the World Academy of Art and Science.
A. Human Security for All: Human security is the essential foundation for peace and social stability. At a time of unprecedented opportunities for global progress, the collective quest for human security for all is in retreat. Those with the greatest power to lead and support global security are turning inward in a desperate pursuit of self-interest and self-assertion. The rising levels of violence and social instability are the product of a rising sense of uncertainty, insecurity and helplessness, a loss of trust in our national and multilateral institutions, a loss of confidence, commitment and momentum in implementation of Agenda 2030. The unprecedented threats to peace and human security confronting humanity today point to the inadequacy of the current system of global governance and global rule of law. Radical change in our concept of security is needed to reverse the contagion of insecurity, violence and war spreading around the globe. A fundamental shift in strategy must place the importance of human security at the top of the levels of investment in military preparedness for national security which increases the temptation and propensity for war. War directly attacks all the dimensions of human security. It is the single greatest source of violence, famine, forced migration, poverty, and threats to human rights. Investment needs to be shifted to address the root causes of human insecurity.
B. Peace Offensive: The concept of the Peace Offensive transcends traditional conflict management. It and embraces comprehensive peace and includes efforts to transform crises into opportunities for enduring peace. The objective of the Peace Offensive is to promote positive momentum on peace and human security by innovative strategic initiatives that present viable pathways for resolving protracted crises at the local, regional and global level. The strategy focuses on positive reciprocal initiatives for compromise and calls for unilateral, symbolic gestures to encourage reciprocal actions in response. The Global Peace Offensive is a new initiative launched by WAAS in 2024 in collaboration with the European Academy of Sciences and Arts, Alma Mater Europea University and the World University Consortium (WUC). Discussions are now underway with the Club of Rome and other organizations to expand the network and commence project work.
C. Reviving Momentum of Agenda 2030: Agenda 2030 represents an unprecedented endeavor to consciously conceive, plan and execute a comprehensive program to address the entire spectrum of major challenges to peace, human security and sustainable progress for all human beings on earth. Never before has humanity come together to attempt a program of this scope, magnitude, complexity and difficulty. Effectively addressing the rising levels of insecurity and instability and restoring forward momentum on peace, human security and sustainable development as envisioned in Agenda 2030 is an essential effort to addressing the root causes of insecurity and global turbulence. The world community possesses the wealth, the technological capacities and organizational expertise needed. It must now recognize the vital importance of implementation of the 17 SDGs to ensure the future of humanity. New strategies are needed to break the logjam in implementation of Agenda 2030.
A series of reports by Force for Good, a WAAS strategic research partner, have identified a wide range of solutions to accelerate implementation of the SDGs in developing countries, including 10 major technological solutions to promote large scale investment in association with UN agencies and leading technology corporations. The objective is to harness the power of the technologies identified in the 2025 Force for Good Report to promote digital connectivity, digital health, higher education and vocational training in developing countries in collaboration with national governments, major corporations, Consumer Technology Association, UNDP and UNDESA. WAAS is also a member of the several UNESCO and Indian Science Council initiatives to promote science diplomacy for sustainable development including the Earth-Humanity Coalition.
D. Universal Higher Education: Education is an essential driver for social stability, prosperity and rapid social evolution. Human security for all will only be attainable when accessible, affordable, world class education is available to all those who seek it. That will require a doubling the capacity of the international system of higher education to accommodate. Innovations in educational content, pedagogy and delivery systems essential for preparing millions of youth to understand, adapt, thrive personally and contribute collectively to the challenges of speed, complexity and uncertainties in the 21st century. Application of AI can significantly enhance the quality of pedagogy, curriculum and delivery systems for global higher education by overcoming the limitations imposed by the fragmentation of knowledge resulting from specialization in disciplinary silos, enhance the capacity for personalized self-paced learning and delivery systems.
WAAS and WUC have already promoted seven international conferences on future education, more than a dozen curriculum development programs, and recent events presented plans for development of global on-line and hybrid delivery systems that harness the power of generative AI for self-paced, interactive, multilingual education. WAAS has recently projected the need for a massive effort to upgrade global higher education at the UN Summit of the Future, 2025 Consumer Electronics Show, and Alma Mater Europea University. Plans are now underway for an International Future Education Conference in India in late 2025.
E. Cooperative Security: The retreat to Cold War power struggles and nationalistic militarization highlight our failure to evolve from the competitive security system that dominated international relations during the pre-1990 period. The opportunity was missed during the early 1990s to evolve an inclusive cooperative security system supportive and protective of all nations. The Warsaw Pact dissolved but NATO survived and expanded eastward, enhancing the security only of its members. A negotiated ceasefire or peace in Ukraine will be at best temporary unless the deeper institutional foundations are created to ensure peace and security for all the nations of Europe from the Atlantic to the Pacific and beyond.
F. Right to Employment: Job insecurity and unemployment are among the most widespread sources of social discontent, political instability, polarization of society, and extremist politics. In recent decades employment security has been undermined by rising power of corporations, declining power of unions, globalization of markets, uncontrolled immigration of low wage workers, and rapid technological innovations that replace workers with machines. Studies confirm that the cost of unemployment to society arising from unutilized manpower, lost skills, declining mental and physical health, rising crime, law enforcement and imprisonment are considerably greater than the cost of providing public employment for the unemployed. But there are effective instruments available to enhance employment and economic security. Recognizing the right to employment and providing a Basic Minimum Wage for all citizens may prove to be the most effective long-term strategies.
G. Vocational Training: Skills development programs provide a means to reskill and upskill existing workers for more sophisticated work and higher productivity. Continuous lifelong training programs enable workers to keep pace with rapid advances in technology.
H. Job Guarantee Programs: Programs such as India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act has ensured job opportunities for tens of millions of low income workers and raised the minimum wage in a country which does not have an effective national minimum wage program.
I. Taxing Technology: Technological innovation is essential for social progress. But current practice distributes almost all the rewards of rising productivity to investors and shareholders, while reducing both the number of jobs and pay scales for human beings. Introduction of national or even international taxation on technological applications in the workplace can provide resources to redistribute a portion of the financial gains to the workforce and working age unemployed.
J. Economic Inequality: Neoliberal economics and financial policies are responsible for raising levels of economic inequality to the highest level in a century. Even economically advanced nations are witnessing a hOllowing of the middle-class resulting from a dramatic rise in the percentage of national income and wealth going to a small minority of the very wealthy. The rise of money power and plutocratic forms of government must be reversed. This can only be done by addressing the economic roots of insecurity, discontent, and social unrest based on neoliberal economic theories and policies. Raising taxation of the wealthy and taxing imports from other nations that maintain very low tax rates for the upper income group are measures that can help reverse the trend and restore a more equitable income distribution.
K. Money Power and Plutocracy: The real problem with addressing high levels of inequality is the rise in the power of wealth in global society and the gradual transition of democracies into societies controlled by money power. Simple remedies exist to prohibit or limit political donations by corporations and ensure full disclosure of the source of donations.
L. Governance of Banking and International Finance Markets: The East Asia Financial Crisis of the late 1990s, the Global Financial Criss of 2008, rising levels of inflation and public debt today are consequences of the globalization and liberalization of the international banking and financial system in the 1990s and the progressive decline of national control over multinational corporations. Global turbulence can only be overcome by establishing effective policies and governance to address the instability introduced by financial liberalization, deregulation of banking, cross-border financial flows, corporations and wealthy individuals.
M. Global Voices: Universal citizen participation, most especially that of youth and the voice of future generations, is an essential condition for giving voice to the aspirations and concerns of the global populace, encouraging active participation in public debates and political processes. Emergence of collective global social consciousness and identity can be facilitated by launching a transnational, global platform to give voice to the silent billions of people and empower the global public to support fundamental global systems change.
N. Redesigning Multilateralism: The retreat to national competition, the dominance of power politics and militarization will only magnify and multiply the problems, enhance the turbulence and lead to increasing levels of social unrest, conflict and war. The problems confronting humanity today can only be effectively and permanently addressed by strengthening and empowering the international institutions of governance based on global rule of law and an inclusive system of cooperative security for all nations that renounce war as an instrument for national policy.
VII. Future Work
The solutions described above address the root causes of global turbulence. The magnitude of the challenges confronting humanity today will require addressing issues of this importance on a global scale by nations and institutions around the world. This cannot be done my incremental measures such as those proposed to address the symptoms of the global turbulence. They must be taken as elements of a comprehensive agenda for conscious social transformation of our human community. Efforts of such magnitude are rare. But the unprecedented threats confronting humanity today are of the magnitude that warrant an effort of this nature and magnitude. Nothing less will suffice.
The World Academy was founded 65 years ago at a time when the remarkable advances in science and technology opened up unprecedented opportunities for our collective progress as well as unprecedented threats to our collective survival. Either by good common sense or miracle, we have managed to survive this long by an aspiration to build a better world combined with an ambivalent, haphazard, sporadic and stumbling exercise of good judgment and self-restraint and their very opposite. Today the scope of the challenges and existential threats we face are far greater in intensity and urgency than ever before. So too are the opportunities, capacities and potential benefits for all humanity, provided we chart the right course and persist in achieving it.
The world today needs leadership in thought that leads to effective action. The intellectual challenge before us is to fully understand the circumstances and factors that have brought us to the present situation, the root causes and deeper processes governing global social evolution, the opportunities and catalytic strategies for effective action. The leadership needed is the willingness and ability to reach out and share a unifying vision and strategy with all those of like-minded values, understanding and willingness for action to set a common course leading ultimately to peace and human security for all.
The challenge before us is to execute a plan for conscious social transformation that addresses the root causes of the crisis. To be successful, the plan will necessarily include measures to dramatically reduce social tensions and global military spending, mobilize advanced technologies, redirect private sector investment into projects that enhance human security and sustainable development by leveraging the power of AI-based technologies to enhance digital connectivity, communications, finance, health, education and vocational training.
[1] Sustainable Development Goals, warns new UN report