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Running on EXTRA time…
Insights from the EXTRA Working Group to help you
keep track of ‘Existential Threats and Risks to All’
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Welcome
to the EXTRA Newsletter
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EDITORIAL
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Understanding Risk in Synthetic Societies and with World Systems Theory
This edition looks at the rise of AI-controlled life worlds, or what some refer to as Synthetic Societies. Our first video feature takes up this theme in a symposium in collaboration with The International Centre for Transdisciplinary Research in Paris, and a line up of eminent speakers. The theme is explored further in three thought provoking articles and with a special selection of relevant risk reports, countermeasures and news.
A second video podcast was produced to highlight the relevance of social theory to understanding the polycrisis, with our special guest Prof Heikki Patomäki, a leading scholar of world systems theory and a futurist. Heokki is Professor of World Politics and Global Political Economy in Helsinki and a member of the Finnish Academy of Sciences and Letters. Together these features underline the growing need for integrated, systemic risk governance.
Lorenzo Rodriguez, Editor, EXTRA Newsletter
Prof Thomas Reuter, Co-editor & Chair, EXTRA Working Group
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INTERVIEWS & WEBINARS
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Original, short interviews or discussions with experts and stakeholders on various categories of existential challenges.
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Synthetic Societies: Human Vulnerability and Systemic Fragility in a Context of Rising Algorithmic Power Title
This joint symposium of EXTRA and CIRET explores how synthetic societies produce new forms of systemic fragility, including the erosion of public trust, amplification of misinformation, concentration of economic and epistemic power, and the weakening of democratic accountability. Rather than framing technological development as either utopian or catastrophic, this panel seeks to foster a critical interdisciplinary conversation about the conditions under which increasingly synthetic societies can remain socially coherent, ethically accountable, and resilient in the face of accelerating algorithmic power.
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Our Common Future: World System Scenarios for the 21st Century - Assessing Risks , Creating Opportunities
Professors Ortwin Renn, Barry Gills and Thomas Reuter from the EXTRA team discuss with our special guest, the renowned world systems theorist Prof Heikki Patomäki, Helsinki University, some of the major trends destabilising and re-shaping the world system across different interlocking domains, now and into the future. We explore which scenarios for future global order or disorder are likely to emerge and what they will mean for the prospects of effective global governance of existential risk. The central question will be how humanity can manage to consciously create a viable common future, taking crisis as an opportunity.
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ARTICLES, ESSAYS & IDEAS
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Original articles, op-ed pieces, and more – commissioned by EXTRA.
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Beyond the Power of Algorithms: Restoring Human Agency Across Complex Risk Landscapes
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Mirella Tarmure Vadean, Université de l’Ontario Français
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Examines a critical blind spot in contemporary debates on AI: the progressive reconfiguration of human agency itself. Rather than focusing solely on AI agency, the central concern is how the increasing delegation of judgment, decision-making, and cognitive responsibility to algorithmic systems subtly transforms the very conditions of autonomous human thought. Within this framework, a key entry point is the notion of unknowing, understood as distinct from unlearning and increasingly relevant in a world where knowledge is valued primarily when it is already known: formalized, finite, measurable, and computationally accessible.
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Artificial Intelligence, Existential Risks, and International Obligations
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Cristina Popa Tache, EXTRA & CIRET
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International law today is rediscovering its original purpose of preventing catastrophes and protecting the existence of the human species. For this reason, the author proposes standardizing key technical definitions relevant to AI, such as ‘algorithmic fairness,’ and puts forward the hypothesis that the existential risks posed by AI – ranging from potential algorithmic breakdowns to the irreversible decision-making autonomy of machines – require a proactive reconfiguration of global norms. She calls for a new type of legal obligation, configured as a veritable existential duty of care, in which states must take preventive measures, inspired by the precautionary principle and intergenerational responsibility, to avoid catastrophic scenarios.
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Governing AI Before It Acts: From Software to Autonomous Agents
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Bacely YoroBi, CEO, Scorton
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This article explores the fundamental shift from traditional software to autonomous AI agents and introduces the concept "Operational Trust" as the essential governance framework for this new era. The digital landscape is undergoing a transformation that is far more than incremental. We are moving from legacy software—which is deterministic, rule-based, and human-supervised—to autonomous AI agents. These agents do not merely execute predefined instructions; they perceive their environment, make decisions, and act, often without any human intervention.
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Synthetic Societies: Governing Human Vulnerability in an Age of Intelligent Systems
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Kiriti Prasad Choudhury, EXTRA
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Intelligent systems are now deeply embedded in daily life, institutions, and infrastructures. As a result, our societies are becoming part of a massive, interconnected techno-social eco-systems. These systems shape how we think, make decisions, interact and govern ourselves. The opportunities and challenges of this transformation depend not only on governing systems as such but on understanding and regulating the evolving relationships they create. As these technologies are moving toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), AI agents and systems will become more autonomous, adaptive, and harder to predict or control. This is why building systemic resilience must become our top priority. This article argues that preserving human agency, strengthening institutional accountability, and building societal resilience should become governance priorities for the next phase of synthetic societies.
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UPCOMING EVENTS
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A selection of events to be aware of that are organized by EXTRA, allies, partners and organizations on our radar.
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Ai4 2026
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Ai4
Las Vegas, USA (In-Person Event) | August 4–6, 2026 @The Venetian Resort
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IJCAI-ECAI 2026, 35th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
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International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization (IJCAI) & European Association for Artificial Intelligence (EurAI)
Bremen, Germany (In-Person Event) | August 15–21, 2026 @University of Bremen and Messe Bremen
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Read More
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REPORTS
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Our latest selection of outstanding reports on Existential Threats and Risks. Beat the info glut by taking a look at our monthly list.
If you have time, take a look at the 20 Notable Reports or browse the complete EXTRA Risk Directory on our website.
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AI Deterrence by Betrayal
Khoja et al, Centre for AI Safety
June 2026, 29p.
AI systems are becoming a major component of states’ competitiveness, and the countries that integrate AI most successfully in their industries and militaries will gain a significant strategic advantage. Taking a lead in AI capabilities through reckless development would seem like the best strategy. However, heavy reliance on AI systems also creates new vulnerabilities. Adversaries can cause harm by infiltrating and undermining the loyalties of agentic AI.
Prioritizing the Risks from Artificial Intelligence
MIT AI Risk Initiative
June 2026, 94p.
Many AI risks are becoming familiar to well-informed readers, from discrimination to loss of privacy and fraud, while others are emerging, such as over-reliance, dangerous capabilities being (mis)used in weapons or cyberattacks, and AI systems pursuing unintended goals. This study asked which AI risks are most severe, who is most vulnerable to them, and who is most responsible for addressing them. These questions were put to 272 AI experts using the Delphi method.
International AI Safety Report 2026
Expert Advisory Panel
February 2026, 221p.
The most comprehensive science-based assessment of general-purpose AI to date, produced by 100+ independent experts from 30+ nations alongside the UN, OECD, and EU. Capabilities have accelerated sharply: top AI systems in 2025 achieved gold-medal performance on the International Mathematical Olympiad and surpassed PhD-level benchmarks in science. Yet risks are intensifying in parallel—deepfake fraud is surging, AI-assisted cyberattacks outpace defenses, and pre-deployment tests failed to eliminate bioweapon-assistance risks in several leading models. The report flags an "evidence dilemma": AI evolves faster than safety science does, leaving policymakers to choose between premature regulation and dangerous delay.
Global Tipping Points Report 2025
Global Tipping Points Initiative, University of Exeter
October 2025, 379p.
Compiled by more than 160 researchers across 87 organizations in 23 countries, the report warns that the world is nearing multiple catastrophic Earth System tipping points as warming surpasses 1.5°C — including coral reef dieback, polar ice sheet melt, potential AMOC collapse and Amazon degradation. These risks are interconnected and mutually reinforcing, requiring emissions to be halved by 2030 and to reach net zero by 2050. It also highlights "positive tipping points" — the rapid, self-reinforcing adoption of solar power, EVs, and heat pumps — as levers for cascading beneficial change.
World Inequality Report 2026
World Inequality Lab
June 2026, 208p.
Inequality is reported to have reached levels that are catastrophic for rational, democratic government. According to ProPublica, the world’s first trillionaire, Elon Musk, paid no federal income tax in 2018, benefiting from Trump-era tax reforms. The report discusses such distortions in the section “The super-rich pay proportionately less than others.”
Worldwide Threat Assessment
Global Guardian
March 2026, 12p.
Details a spectrum of rising threats and risks, including agentic AI-driven cybercrime, political instability, and competition over critical minerals.
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COUNTERMEASURES
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A new addition to the newsletter, with important models or targeted recommendations for effective existential risks management, sustainability and human security.
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Is a New Copernican Revolution already underway?
Jeremy Lent, Resilience
May 2026, ~13p.
Explores efforts to define the rights of nature as a legal instrument for preventing the collapse of earth systems and biodiversity loss. These efforts combat the myth of human supremacy over and separation from nature.
Roadmap for Eradicating Poverty Beyond Growth
UN Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights (Olivier De Schutter)/NEEP Initiative
June 2026, 136p.
Developed through 18 months of consultation with over 400 contributors—unions, civil society, academics, UN agencies, and 18 governments—this landmark roadmap argues that the "grow-tax-transfer" model for poverty eradication has failed. It presents 80 actionable policy measures organized across six pillars: transforming economic systems (wealth caps, corporate tax reform, ecological fiscal policy); labour, care, and economic democracy; universal basic services and social protection; ecological justice; reforming the international economic order (debt cancellation, tax justice); and democratic planning and governance. The core reframe: poverty eradication must be a precondition for economic policy, not a byproduct of it.
Future Opportunities Report: The Global 50
Dubai Future Foundation
March 2025, 338pp.
Details 10 Megatrends and 50 associated opportunities in five categories: Health Reimagined, Nature Restored, Societies Empowered, Systems Optimized, and Transformational. While heavily reliant on technological solutions and downplaying the risk of unexpected consequences or political obstacles (such as the fossil fuel lobby), the report maps future possibilities.
The Quiet Rise of the Plastics Crisis: How to Counter an Insidious Global Threat
Winnie Lau, Foreign Affairs
June 19, 2026
Describes the already extreme extent of plastic pollution and its contribution to climate change, and warns that pollution is likely to double by 2040 according to a recent Pew Trust report. Presents a strong economic case for action.
State of the World's Plants and Fungi 2026: The Digital Biodiversity Revolution
Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
June 2026, 55p.
Drawing on 400+ experts across 170 institutions in 40 countries, Kew's sixth landmark report delivers a sobering count: of ~400,000 scientifically described plant species, 29,750 are at risk of extinction—with the true figure likely far higher, as newly discovered species carry a disproportionate extinction risk. Subtitled "The Digital Biodiversity Revolution," it shows how AI and mass digitization of 7 million herbarium specimens are transforming conservation science, exposing critical knowledge gaps and enabling targeted action. Warns "taxonomy is now effectively in a race against extinction."
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NEWS from the World Press
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Links to a must-read selection of news for a global outlook across the spectrum of Existential Threats and Risks sourced from the media and web.
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Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us. Daan Juijn et al, Open Access, June 2026
An unconventional but informative account of the AI race and the risk of falling behind, given the meteoric rise of AI capacity in the US and China. This new technological disparity poses a challenge for the EU and nation states worldwide, who may soon find themselves divided into AI haves and have-nots, with severe economic and security consequences.
Quantifying the impacts of rewilding on ecosystem resilience to disturbances: A global meta-analysis. Global Rewilding Alliance/Journal of Environmental Management, Open Access, January 2025
A meta-analysis of 42 case studies and 305 observations finds that rewilding interventions enhanced ecosystem resilience in 70% of observations, demonstrating rewilding's potential to prepare ecosystems for escalating climate-driven disturbances, while flagging limitations for extreme abiotic events such as drought and wildfire.
Trophic rewilding can expand natural climate solutions. Nature Climate Change, Open Access, March 2023
A peer-reviewed study demonstrates that restoring missing herbivores and predators to ecosystems increases vegetation biomass, soil carbon stocks and methane regulation, highlighting the potential of nature-based climate solutions beyond conventional tree-planting as a scalable pathway to meeting global carbon targets.
Why Is Biodiversity Critical To Life On Earth? World Atlas, Open Access, May 2026
An accessible overview of how biodiversity underpins ecosystem services — from food production and water purification to climate regulation and disease control — argues that the current 6th mass extinction threatens not only nature but the material foundations of human civilisation and sustainable development.
The achievability of low-emission IPCC sea-level rise scenarios. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, Paywall, April 2026
A critical assessment of whether the low-emissions pathways underpinning optimistic IPCC sea-level rise projections remain achievable given current emissions trajectories. Finds that without dramatic near-term decarbonization, the world is locked into significantly higher sea-level rise scenarios with severe long-term consequences for coastal populations and infrastructure.
Arctic ocean passes 'irreversible' chemical tipping point. Oceanographic, Open Access, May 2026
Loss of sea ice has triggered an irreversible chemical shift in the Arctic Ocean, in a process known as benthic denitrification. The shallow continental shelves that underlie half of the Arctic Ocean are exposed to intense sunlight as melting ice exposes them, destroying nitrate, the foundational fertiliser required for marine life to survive. The resulting nutrient famine is already affecting the whole Arctic food chain, threatening everything from microscopic plankton to commercial fish stocks, seabirds and marine mammals.
Glaciers in the 'roof of the world' have suddenly started melting. New Scientist, Open Access, May 2026
Glaciers all over the world have been retreating due to rising temperatures, but in the western Kunlun mountains, the Karakoram mountains, and the eastern Pamir mountains, they have remained stable - until now.
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